Some observations:
1) 60% of households have no savings and can't make next month's rent or mortgage payment without their job.
2) 16MM people lost their jobs in the last 3 weeks - about 10% unemployment up from 3%. Forecasts are we exit the summer somewhere around 20-25%.
3) While states
have instituted rent and mortgage relief programs for the duration, it's
simply delaying the payments - not eliminating them. Go three months
in lock down, in the fourth month you'll owe the back three plus the
current payment. See points one and two above - we're going to see the
greatest number of evictions in history come the fall, just in time for
winter.
4) The increase in uninsured (see point 2) will result in enormous debt for coronavirus treatment (co-pays are waived, but out of pocket maxes aren't) for anyone afflicted - see points 1 & 2 again. This results in an increase trend in bankruptcies, evictions and inability to feed themselves.
5) Any recovery will require testing and vaccinations - which if everyone doesn't do them we'll not be able to exit this pandemic.
6) The US is a consumer driven economy - 70% of GDP driven by consumer purchases. Amy recovery will stumble over the above points - there simply won't be enough demand to restart the economic engine quick enough to get us out of problems.
7) Food is soon to be in short supply - farmers and dairies are already letting crops spoil in the fields because they have no distribution for their production - and the government is too inept to realize this and do something about it.
8) The IMF just forecast a 3% contraction in global GDP for this year, with next year up for grabs.
9) The Federal Government is increasingly ineffectual, chaotic, and leading to confusion in the states, asserting at first it has no accountability for helping the states, which should have done a better job of planning, and then that the President has the sole and unassailable right to tell the country when to go back to work. Reports abound of the administration seizing PPE shipments to the states, and even to other countries, of states forced to bid against the federal government for the same, all while apparently meting out strategic reserves based upon how "appreciative" (read ass kissing) the individual Governors are to the President.
10) There is no test for antibodies, a lack of tests for simple diagnosis, and a vaccination is estimated to be 12 - 18 months out. How we will know that it is safe for the population, or individuals, to go back to work is still not understood, much less planned for.
All of which is to say, we're not exiting this anytime soon (I've seen projections of unemployment above 15% through the end of 2021, even without a resurgence of the virus in the fall.)
I see massive unemployment, homelessness, illness that the current brand of capitalism and our dysfunctional political systems will be unable to cope with.
So, what's left?
As people are evicted from their homes, work is still unavailable, the entire system is likely to come crashing down - there is no FDR this time around to put in place the WPA and get us out of this situation.
Frankly, I'm not sure the Union survives - look at what Cuomo and the neighboring governors did yesterday on the East Coast, and California/Oregon/Washington did on the West Coast - organize in the absence of any semblance of leadership from Washington into regional affiliations that will work, cross states borders, on addressing the virus, and determining mutually when it is appropriate to begin relaxing social distancing programs. It's cleat that the regions have recognized that the Federal government is incompetent, unable to address the situation, and actively working AGAINST the common weal.
And there it is - the revolution has begun - we just haven't recognized it yet.
4) The increase in uninsured (see point 2) will result in enormous debt for coronavirus treatment (co-pays are waived, but out of pocket maxes aren't) for anyone afflicted - see points 1 & 2 again. This results in an increase trend in bankruptcies, evictions and inability to feed themselves.
5) Any recovery will require testing and vaccinations - which if everyone doesn't do them we'll not be able to exit this pandemic.
6) The US is a consumer driven economy - 70% of GDP driven by consumer purchases. Amy recovery will stumble over the above points - there simply won't be enough demand to restart the economic engine quick enough to get us out of problems.
7) Food is soon to be in short supply - farmers and dairies are already letting crops spoil in the fields because they have no distribution for their production - and the government is too inept to realize this and do something about it.
8) The IMF just forecast a 3% contraction in global GDP for this year, with next year up for grabs.
9) The Federal Government is increasingly ineffectual, chaotic, and leading to confusion in the states, asserting at first it has no accountability for helping the states, which should have done a better job of planning, and then that the President has the sole and unassailable right to tell the country when to go back to work. Reports abound of the administration seizing PPE shipments to the states, and even to other countries, of states forced to bid against the federal government for the same, all while apparently meting out strategic reserves based upon how "appreciative" (read ass kissing) the individual Governors are to the President.
10) There is no test for antibodies, a lack of tests for simple diagnosis, and a vaccination is estimated to be 12 - 18 months out. How we will know that it is safe for the population, or individuals, to go back to work is still not understood, much less planned for.
All of which is to say, we're not exiting this anytime soon (I've seen projections of unemployment above 15% through the end of 2021, even without a resurgence of the virus in the fall.)
I see massive unemployment, homelessness, illness that the current brand of capitalism and our dysfunctional political systems will be unable to cope with.
So, what's left?
As people are evicted from their homes, work is still unavailable, the entire system is likely to come crashing down - there is no FDR this time around to put in place the WPA and get us out of this situation.
Frankly, I'm not sure the Union survives - look at what Cuomo and the neighboring governors did yesterday on the East Coast, and California/Oregon/Washington did on the West Coast - organize in the absence of any semblance of leadership from Washington into regional affiliations that will work, cross states borders, on addressing the virus, and determining mutually when it is appropriate to begin relaxing social distancing programs. It's cleat that the regions have recognized that the Federal government is incompetent, unable to address the situation, and actively working AGAINST the common weal.
And there it is - the revolution has begun - we just haven't recognized it yet.
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